SP3 will do nothing for XP, but still more than what SP1 will do for Vista - The third and final service pack for Windows XP will do little to nothing for the operating system, but will manage to deliver a superior boost to the platform's momentum in comparison to Service Pack 1 for Windows Vista.
Via SP1,Vista has indeed grown into its own, but the latest operating system has to carry around the ballast from the failed Wow, and the variety of problems that plagued it through the first year on the market. Service Pack 1 will need time to turn the public perception of Vista by 180 degrees, if it will ever manage to perform the task, and give migration and upgrading scenarios to the latest Windows operating system a feeling of inevitability.
Unlike SP2, XP SP3 is just a standard service pack, so standard in fact that end users will barely notice any differences. It will certainly not even reach the same level of evolution SP1 is bringing to Vista. Still, the focus comes not on changes but on the strict perception of an update. The perspective, erroneous as it may be, that XP SP2 is superior to Vista RTM, has already become generalized among consumers, and SP3 is only going to accentuate it. Vista SP1, available since mid-March 2008, combined with price reductions for the most popular editions of the platform, will without a doubt contribute to fueling adoption through the retail and OEM channels.
At the end of 2007, Vista RTM went over the 100 million sold licenses milestone, and is right on track to hit 150 million earlier than mid-2008, which would mean that uptake is accelerating. At the same time, XP has lost market share throughout 2007, and the trend will only continue to accentuate this year. And what it comes down to in the end is that the critical aspect of Vista SP1 vs. XP SP3 is intimately connected with the audience of each operating system. The install base drives the ecosystem of third-party developers to focus on the platforms, and in its turn, the focus of the ecosystem of software and hardware solutions fuels an increase in the adoption of the operating system. Vista is not an exception to this rule. Neither is Vista SP1.
Statistics Don't Lie, the Only Way for XP Is Down
Yet, XP is not going anywhere by any measure. Michael Dix, General Manager of Windows Client Product Management, revealed that there is "no impact on our technical support plans [for XP] – mainstream technical support will continue to be available until April 2009 and extended support will continue until April 2014." And judging by the examples of Windows 2000 and Windows 98, XP SP3 will live well beyond its support kill-off deadline in 2014, only that it will do so with an eroded market share.
